Self-publishing and ebook predictions for 2012

‘Tis the season for reflection and predictions. We might pause to reflect later but self-publishing and ebooks are moving forward so fast that yesterday looks like the distant past and next week seems to be the boundary of the foreseeable future. Or I’m hyperbolising. You be the judge.

What I can tell you quite objectively is that I have conjured up some of the most original thinkers in self-publishing, gathered them in a tent with their choice of crystal ball, tarot cards or a cast of Jeff Bezos’ palm. This is what they predict for self-publishing and ebooks in 2012…

Derek Haines: Things get really bad for traditional publishing

“By the end of 2012 the book publishing industry as a whole will know exactly how much trouble it is really in. It will be the year that Amazon in its Kindle form and especially in its new traditional publisher form, really endeavour to shake the tree of the publishing establishment.

“At the same time, 2012 could also be the year that sees self-publishing mature as a viable source of books in readers’ eyes. But only if authors and ebook service providers continue to learn, innovate and most importantly, improve the quality of their product.”

Joel Friedlander: Better tools

“I’m looking forward in 2012 to better and more widely available tools for creating ebooks, and hoping we’ll see a way to create books with some of the typographic sophistication of print books. Also looking for a breakthrough in digital colour printing, and the continued growth of e-distributors who look ready to move into digital printing on behalf of their authors. Happy New Year!”

Catherine Ryan Howard: No more “weekend self-publishers”

“I think that basically 2010-2011 was all about e-books becoming ‘mainstream’ and self-publishers — especially the Churn ‘Em Out, Price ‘Em Low, Buy Large Items With Cash brigade — did extremely well in this environment, because by the time traditional publishing started to turn their attention to this strange new world, self-publishers were already experts in it.

“But in 2012, I think Trad Pub will catch up considerably and this will make things harder for self-publishers.

“I’m also extremely interested to see how a few mega-selling self-pubbed ebook authors who got huge traditional deals that I know of will fare when we’re not talking sofa change, ebooks and a Kindle, but 10 or 15 times that, paperbacks and bookshops. The publishers have paid huge amounts to sign them and my prediction is they won’t make it back. They just won’t do as well in the traditional model, I suspect.

“So while that’s my bad news, I think there is some good — for readers. You can already see it happening: self-publishers are starting to get that this isn’t a weekend job. They’re starting to acknowledge the importance of professional editing and cover design, and self-published books are getting better and better all the time. So hopefully in 2012, the ‘Weekend Self-Publishers’ will get weeded out, and the general reading public will begin to see that they can find great reads in the self-pubbed pile.”

Joanna Penn: Europe reaches the tipping point, Asia comes online, and the stigma passes

“Europe is about 18 months behind the US so I would expect the tipping point for UK and mainland Europe to come for ebooks in Xmas 2012 and into 2013.

“I would also expect to see a Kindle store for India expanding the English speaking market into Asia.

“In education, the use of ebook readers will become ubiquitous for textbooks and other study material so the younger generation will start adopting the devices.

“We will also see a more mature picture book style ereader where self-publishers will be able to do more creative ebooks.

“The last traces of the stigma of self-publishing will be in the past and the new stigma will be books that fail to sell so leading a tribe and connecting with your customer will become even more important for authors.

Passive Voice Guy: It’s going to get legal, bigger and hacked

1. Either a major author or a group of authors will sue a large publisher for underpayment of ebook royalties.
2. More established authors will publicly abandon traditional publishing for self-publishing in both the US and UK.
3. Amazon will have online bookstores in the top 15 countries, ranked by GDP.
4. One or more hackers will discover enough about Amazon’s Sales Rank algorithm to rapidly boost a book up in the best seller rankings.

David Gaughran: Armageddon for publishers and the rise of the ebook in Europe and Asia

“Predicting the future is a mug’s game, as patterns only emerge with hindsight. Having said that, I expect to see a continuation of the trends we saw in 2011: widespread closure of bookstores, collapse of print sales, surging e-books sales, increased popularity of self-publishing amongst new and veteran authors.

“I also think 2012 will see the rise of alternative author compensation models from Amazon’s Lending Library to subscription and ad-supported e-reading sites. 2012 might see large publishers finally embracing the digital future instead of trying to slow the changeover, but we’ll see – they’re still running in the wrong direction.

“Finally, while US growth will remain strong, the real headline growth numbers will be seen in the UK and Europe where Amazon will face strong competition from local players.”

And my predictions…

Joanna Penn has kindly invited me to join her for a video podcast to discuss these predictions — and mine — on her most excellent blog The Creative Penn. I’ll update this post when that’s done. (We’re recording on Monday.)

What about you?

Where do you think self-publishing and ebooks are heading in 2012? I’d love to know your thoughts.

The Taleist 2012 Self-Publishing Survey